We finally had our first negative week of CFB betting last week, after finishing in the green with look-ahead lines, Week 1 and Week 2 betting. USC failed to cover by 1 point. This our second one-point defeat of the year, as our Week 1 Under in the Miami/ND game went over by one point. Either way, we regroup and hit it hard again this week…
Friday Standalone Straight: Rutgers (ML) vs Iowa
Best Odds: +130 at Caesars
Scaled Sample Stake: $30 to payout $92
The Scarlet Knights will host the Hawkeyes in a standalone Friday night game on Fox. Don’t really see why Iowa is favored on the road. Their win over Iowa State doesn’t mean much to me, as ISU beat Arkansas State by 8 and a horrible KSU team by 3 in their other two P4 games. So unless Iowa’s blowout win over UMass is the reason, I think the Hawkeyes are being severely overrated. Meanwhile, Rutgers beat a very good MAC duo of Ohio and Miami (OH) in weeks 1 and 2, with the latter win being a 45-17 drubbing. Obviously those two wins aren’t leaps and bounds better than Iowa’s (espcially given that neither is a B12 win like ISU is for Iowa), but I think these two teams are basically on the same tier, but with Rutgers having a much better QB (820 yards in 3 games for Kaliakmanis vs 306 yards in 3 games for Granowski). I also think Rutgers’ run game with Antwan Raymond is in the same relative tier as Iowa’s trio of Williams, Patterson and Washington. Add in that Iowa doesn’t have the Kinnick magic in this one, and I’m not seeing what Vegas is seeing here.
Primetime Saturday Straight: Miami (-7.5) vs Florida
Best Odds: -105 on ESPN
Scaled Sample Stake: $32 to payout $62
While the Gators had a positive net success rate margin vs LSU and largely only lost that game due to DJ Lagway’s picks, it does speak to just how broken UF’s offense is. Meanwhile, LSU’s offense is much to blame for UF’s defensive success last game, as opposed to the Gators defense being good. Meanwhile, Carson Beck looks like his 2023 self, the Canes’ Mark Fletcher-led run game is solid and star freshman Malachi Toney leads a WR room that may be better than last year. All of this is second-fiddle to the Rueben Bain-led Miami defense that has been wreaking havoc so far this year. I think Miami rolls.
West Coast Parlay: Washington (-16.5 alt) at WSU | Cal (-12.5) at SDSU
Best Odds: +207 at DraftKings
Scaled Sample Stake: $30 to payout $92
Michigan State fans will be up while the second leg of this cashes, so that works out well. Washington State just lost to North Texas 59-10. How bad is that? Well, North Texas needed overtime to beat Western Michigan. Meanwhile, Jedd Fisch and the Huskies have been handling inferior opponents very well to open the season. I think Washington will be excited to drive a stake through a spiraling WSU program once and for all here. As for Cal’s opponent, the San Diego State Aztecs lost to that same aforementioned Washington State program 36-13. Tons of intertwined transitive property applications here, but that was just for the interesting framing. The real basis of this parlay is that Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and UW’s Demond Williams are talented enough to rip up these defenses by 13 and 17+ points, respectively.
Flier SGP: UM/NEB - Marlin Klein TD and Dane Key 40+ Yards
Best Odds: +498 at FanDuel
Scaled Sample Stake: $8 to payout $48
Michigan’s receiver play is still shaky, but TE1 Marlin Klein will continue to feast from time to time. In the red zone, the savvy space-navigator will be a big target for true freshman Bryce Underwood. For Dylan Raiola, Kentucky transfer Dane Key has been a key target. Key is averaging 63.3 yards per game in three games this season.