Last week, I went 1-2 with the main plays and also missed on the high-odds fun parlay, yielding a second-straight negative week. Let’s see if this is the week where we can recapture the massive success we had in Weeks 1 & 2.
Powerhouse Parlay: Georgia (-2.5) vs Alabama / Ohio State (-6.5) at Washington / Texas A&M (-5.5) vs Auburn
Best Odds: +452 on FanDuel
Sample Scaled Stake: $20 pays out $110
These are the normal lines for the Georgia and TAMU games, while we’re buying 2 points for the OSU game. While I think all 3 games will be double-digit wins for the teams we have chosen here, I still wanted to trim it down a key number for OSU just because of the cross-country trip and it being Julian Sayin’s first road game, just to be safe. I think Georgia is mid+ this year, but Kalen DeBoer isn’t walking into Athens and losing by just a FG (or winning). Similarly, this TAMU team with electric (but volatile) Marcel Reed should have its way with a Jackson Arnold and Hugh Freeze-led Auburn team that is visiting College Station. Meanwhile, I think Vegas is going crazy with the valuations given to cross-country flights. It paid off for them in the BC/Stanford game where I called them out for the same over-valuation, but I think this OSU team bucks the trend. I still don’t trust Matt Patricia, while UW’s Demond Williams is a tricky QB and Jedd Fisch has some schematic juice - otherwise I would’ve alt’ed this the other way and added a -9.5 leg for plus money. The differences in the two rosters are that start, outside of the paranoia of the dynamics listed above. Personally, I am also adding Indiana (-7.5) to this parlay and making it a 5-leg one, but the official recommendation for this bet will end at 4 legs, as that IU leg is already going to be presented as a standalone lock next…
Indiana (-7.5) at Iowa
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
Sample Scaled Stake: $55 pays $105
I get Kinnick is the House of Horrors, but what are we even doing here? I was impressed by Iowa putting up 38 points against Rutgers last weekend, having watched every snap of that game. But it must be noted that Rutgers’ defense looks horrendous, while it was even more concerning that Iowa’s defense was easily picked apart by Athan Kaliakmanis (more on him later). I think Indiana could win this by 27+ points. I will be finding the biggest alternate line I can for this game on Saturday morning, back-tracking to the next lowest key number below that, and locking it in for a unit.
Rutgers (+5.5) at Minnesota
Best Odds: -110 on FanDuel
Sample Scaled Stake: $38 pays $73
What Athan Kaliakmanis did to Phil Parker’s defense when he put up 28 points is partially due to Iowa not having the usual Iowa defense, but his reads, accuracy and overall composure speaks to a guy that is benefiting from tons of experience and a solid WR group at his disposal. I am also impressed by Antwan Richardson and Rutgers’ running game. Minnesota is no pushover, but I cannot get over them losing to Cal by 13, with the Golden Bears then losing to San Diego State 27-0 the next weekend…
TCU (ML) at Arizona State
Best Odds: +118 on ESPN
Sample Scaled Stake: $32 pays $70
A standalone Friday night play here, I think this is one those every-four-years teams that TCU has where they should compete for a Big 12 title. Meanwhile, I have not been impressed whatsoever by Sam Leavitt or Arizona State this year. That loss at Mississippi State was bad, and it won’t age well once Miss. State finishes the season losing 6+ of their next 8 game. Meanwhile, Leavitt is 65th in the nation in QBR, and ASU’s other games include a 3-point win over Baylor (who TCU is much better than), a 19-point win over Northern Arizona (FCS), and a 19-poin win over Texas State. I think TCU QB Josh Hoover will shred this ASU defense.
BYU (-6.5) at Colorado
Best Odds: -110 on ESPN
Sample Scaled Stake: $35 pays $67
To cap off the weekend, I’ll take a BYU team that just dismantled a solid G5 threat in East Carolina on the road at night last weekend, beat Stanford 27-3 (again, Stanford beat Boston College, if you haven’t been made aware), and FCS Portland State 69-0 over a Colorado team who hasn’t gotten the Kaidon Salter they were hoping for at QB. It being at 10:15pm ET in Boulder has allowed us a line that is perfect to take advantage of, as I think it should still be Cougars by about 10. BYU QB Baer Bachmeier will outplay Salter, and the rest of BYU’s roster is better than CU’s. Bachmeier threw for 246 yards on 72.0% completion percentage last weekend on the road at ECU. I expect a similar performance here, despite it being a better (?) P4 opponent.